🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days in the past when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have piled up.

Per Opta, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the ball into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be another reality in which, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.