A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
